In the fight against climate change, innovation is our most powerful tool. But while the world may be hoping for a handful of breakthrough technologies or revolutionary products, the real progress lies in something more subtle: convergent cumulative exponential improvement.
This concept hinges on the idea that we don’t need one product to be 1,000 times better to achieve significant progress. Instead, if we can make 1,000 products just ten times better, the collective impact can lead to massive advancements. This approach recognizes that the path to a sustainable future is not paved with a single, earth-shattering invention but with countless small, converging innovations that together create exponential change.
The Power of Multiple Incremental Improvements Combining Together
Consider the electric vehicle (EV) industry. EVs are not just becoming more prevalent because of one singular advancement but because of many smaller, interconnected improvements. Each component of an EV—from battery technology to aerodynamics, from manufacturing processes to software that optimises energy use—has seen iterative advancements. These improvements, when combined, have made EVs more affordable, efficient, and desirable.
The cost of lithium-ion batteries has dropped dramatically over the past decade, but this was not due to one breakthrough. It was the result of numerous small innovations in chemistry, manufacturing, supply chain optimisation, and recycling. Similarly, improvements in electric motors, charging infrastructure, and even regenerative braking systems all contribute to making EVs a more viable alternative to internal combustion engine vehicles. None of these advancements alone would have been enough to shift the market. Together, however, they have led to a tipping point where EVs are becoming mainstream.
The Smartphone Analogy: A Convergence of Innovations
To further understand this concept, we can draw parallels to the evolution of smartphones. The modern smartphone is an incredible piece of technology, not because of any single innovation, but because of the convergence of many. Compression technology, data centres, software development, graphics processing, microprocessing, screen technology, and network infrastructure have all improved incrementally over the years. Each of these elements has played a critical role in making smartphones what they are today—indispensable tools that fit in our pockets.
Smartphones are not the product of one company or one technology but of a global ecosystem of innovation. The same can be said for climate technology. To address climate change effectively, we need to foster an ecosystem where thousands of companies, researchers, and innovators can work on their pieces of the puzzle. Each improvement, no matter how small, contributes to the larger goal of sustainability.
Convergence
The concept of convergence is crucial to understanding how these incremental improvements can lead to exponential change. In the climate technology sector, convergence occurs when multiple innovations come together to create a solution that is more powerful than the sum of its parts. This is what allows small improvements to compound over time and lead to significant advancements.
The efficiency of solar panels has improved incrementally over the years, but the real game-changer has been the convergence of improvements in panel manufacturing, energy storage, grid integration, and smart technology. Together, these advancements have made solar energy more cost-effective and scalable, enabling it to become a major player in the global energy market.
The same principle applies to other areas of climate technology. In agriculture, for example, advances in precision farming, crop genetics, irrigation technology, and data analytics are converging to create more sustainable and productive farming practices. Each of these innovations builds on the others, leading to cumulative improvements that have a profound impact on food security and environmental sustainability.
The Exponential Impact of Collective Innovation
The beauty of convergent cumulative exponential improvement is that it doesn’t require any single product or technology to bear the weight of solving climate change on its own. Instead, it leverages the power of collective innovation. As more and more products and technologies improve, their combined effect leads to exponential progress. Because of this shared contribution, it actually de-risks the problem set to some degree. It doesn't all come down to one solution or one product. There is a big problem and with many companies trying to make solution, someone will find a way to solve each part.
Embracing a Holistic Approach to Climate Innovation
To fully realise the potential of convergent cumulative exponential improvement, we must embrace a holistic approach to climate innovation. This means supporting a wide range of technologies and solutions, even those that may seem small or incremental at first glance. It also means encouraging collaboration across industries, sectors, and borders to ensure that innovations can converge in meaningful ways.
Governments, businesses, and investors all have a role to play in fostering this environment. Policies that support research and development, provide incentives for climate positive technologies, and facilitate collaboration across industries are crucial. Similarly, investment in a diverse portfolio of climate technologies, from early-stage startups to established companies, will help ensure that we are not putting all our eggs in one basket.
Finally, we must recognise that innovation is not just about technology. It also involves new business models, financing mechanisms, and ways of thinking about sustainability. By embracing a broad definition of innovation, we can unlock the full potential of convergent cumulative exponential improvement.
Can This Actually Work?
Short answer; Yes! Â And one of the reasons we're confident is that Climate Salad itself and the amazing strength and success we've had is the result of convergent, cumulative, exponential improvement. Have we worked very hard, absolutely. But the growth in the industry to 650 companies in 3 years is a combination of many factors all getting better together. Customers curiosity has become purchase orders, founders have started, startups have become scaleups, a few investors have become lots of investors, government narrative has become policy. It all multiplies and multiplies.
Conclusion: The Path to a Sustainable Future
The concept of convergent cumulative exponential improvement offers a hopeful vision for the future of climate innovation. It suggests that the path to sustainability is not about waiting for a silver mushroom but about nurturing a thousand small improvements that together create massive change. By fostering an environment where these improvements can converge and build on each other, we can achieve the exponential progress needed to address the global climate crisis.
In this way, the future of climate innovation is not just about the next big thing—it’s about the next thousand small things. And when these small things come together, they have the power to change the world.
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Written with a starting draft from Chat PGT then edited and reviewed.
Photo by Shahadat Rahman on Unsplash
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